Comparing 20 years of stocks, oil, pension plans, housing and gold

Let's see a comparison of 20 investment products, analyzing its evolution during the last 20 years, that is, from July 1990 to July 2010. The comparison is very interesting coming out as the winner the investment in oil with an annual profit of 7,09% and as a loser the investment in the Japanese stock market with an annual loss of 5,72%. See the summary:

Emerging RV
RV Spain
RF credits USA
RV Germany
RF rental eurozone
Mixed RV pension plan
Spanish housing
RF pension plan credits
Mixed RF pension plan
RF p eurozone
Plan pension RF p
RV United Kingdom
Inflation in Spain
RV France
RV pension plan
RV Japan

Annualized data (evolución Julio 1990 –; Julio 2010)

The winner is the oil, with a price boom that has already happened in 2008 and that could return, but for an investor to invest in oil is problematic, and we have just the oil futures or the ETF as the USO, that invests in futures of oil , pero en ambos casos el problema del “;Contango;, that is, the difference between the expiration prices of one future and the entry price of the next that generate terrible expenses that will surely lower that yield of 7,09% lowering it below the middle of the table.
This leaves us with the Equities (RV) as the absolute winner of the ranking highlighting that of emerging countries with a 7,02%, the Spanish one (que durante parte de estos 20 años tal vez se podía considerar como “;emergente”;) with a 6,76% and the American USA with 6,61%. But since in this ranking I am afraid that dividends have not been taken into account, we must assume that the percentage of profit annualized for equities is greater still. For example, we now have dividends in Spain that average around 4% and in the United States dividends are around 2%.. Counting dividends, Spanish equities are placed as the absolute winner next to emerging equities. And regarding the eternal question about What is revalued more, the stock market or the real state investment, You can see that 20 years ahead has won the stock market, Well, housing has risen only 5,32% annualized. But the analysis of the evolution of the price of housing is always debatable, Well, according to the article they have compared the evolution of the average house price in 1990 with that of the average house in 2010, and may not be comparable products. Starting, The average house bought in 1990 is now an old house in need of reform while the average house sold today is rather new, The average square meters sold have also changed in these 20 years and your old house does not have the meters that are now demanded, but of course, your old House is now more central when before I was on the outskirts, due to construction boom. Well, that the comparison is difficult and to catch with tweezers, but I am afraid that the conclusion is that wins the equities, despite all its oscillations and accepting those inevitable oscillations. Curious to see that the pension plans of equity, stock market, have won only a 2,17%, And it is that the commissions they charge us do their job causing us to earn less than even the inflation, which has been in Spain of a 3,37% annualized during the last 20 years, but well, the report also reminds us that mixed equity pension schemes (with 20 or 30% fixed income) have rented a 5,72% on average, which is not bad at all. Another curiosity is that the price of the Japanese stock markethas lost value during this period, but also keep in mind that its inflation has been negative and I fear has also lowered the price of their property. Japan is Japan, And let's hope we're not getting completely Japanized. Finally comment that the gold, with the boom that is living now included, Its price has only risen by 5,94% annualized over the last 20 years. Not too much, less if we consider that it may now be at bubble prices.

[Via analysis of economy in]

Author: Angel

professor, communicator, engineer