Comparing 20 years of stocks, oil, pension plans, housing and gold

Let's look at a comparison of 20 investment products, analysing its evolution over the past 20 years, from July 1990 until July 2010. The comparison is very interesting coming out as the winner the investment in oil with an annual turnover of 7,09% and as a loser investment in Japanese stock exchange with an annual loss of 5,72%. See the summary:

MAIN ASSETS
Profitability
Brent
7,09%
Emerging RV
7,02%
RV Spain
6,76%
RV USA
6,61%
RF credits USA
6,21%
RV Germany
5,99%
Gold
5,94%
RF rental eurozone
5,90%
Mixed RV pension plan
5,72%
Spanish housing
5,32%
RF pension plan credits
5,26%
Mixed RF pension plan
5,11%
RF p USA
5,03%
RF p eurozone
5,03%
Plan pension RF p
4,96%
RV United Kingdom
4,10%
Inflation in Spain
3,37%
RV France
3,13%
RV pension plan
2,17%
RV Japan
-5,72%

Annualized data (developments July 1990 – July 2010)

The winner is the oil, with a boom of quote that has already happened in 2008 and that might return, but for an investor to invest in oil is problematic, and we have just the oil futures or the ETF as the USO, that invests in futures of oil , but in both cases the problem of the “Contango“, ie the difference between the prices of maturity of a future and the next input generating a terrible cost that surely will lower performance 7,09% giving it down below the middle of the table.
This leaves us the Equities (RV) as the absolute winner in the ranking, highlighting these of the emerging countries with an 7,02%, the Spanish one (that during part of these 20 years could perhaps be considered as “emerging”) with a 6,76% and the American USA with a 6,61%. But given that, in this ranking, I am afraid that dividends have not been taken into account, we must assume that the percentage of profit annualized for equities is greater still. For example we now have dividends in Spain that on average are around 4% and in the United States, dividends are around 2%. Counting dividends Spanish equities is placed as the absolute winner with emerging equities.And to the eternal question about what is revalued more, the stock market or the real state investment, you can see that to 20 years from now the stock market has won, because housing is up only 5,32% annualized. But the analysis of the evolution of the price of housing is always debatable, because they have compared the evolution of the average house price in 1990 with the average housing in 2010, and may not be comparable products. Starting, average purchased housing in 1990 is now an old house and needs reforms while media housing sold today is rather new, mean square footage sold has also changed in these 20 years and your old house does not have the feet that are in demand now, but of course, your old House is now more central when before I was on the outskirts, due to construction boom. Well, that comparison is difficult and to pick up with tweezers, but I am afraid that the conclusion is that wins the equities, Despite all its oscillations and accepting these inevitable fluctuations.Curious to see that thepension plans of equity, stock market, they have won only a 2,17%, because the fees they charge do their work causing even win unless thaninflation, which has been in Spain of a 3,37% annualized over these past 20 years, but well, the report also reminds us that mixed equity pension schemes (with a 20 or 30% fixed income) have rented a 5,72% at average, It is not bad at all. Another curiosity is that the price of theJapanese stock markethas lost value during this period, but also keep in mind that its inflation has been negative and I fear has also lowered the price of their property. Japan is Japan, and let us hope that we are not japanisating at all. Finally let's remark that thegold, with the boom that is living now included, his only contribution has gone up a 5,94% annualized over the past 20 years. Not too much, less if we consider that it may now be at bubble prices.

[Via analysis of economy in bolseando2.blogspot.com]

One thought on “Comparing 20 years of stocks, oil, pension plans, housing and gold

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